从未来倒推：前瞻驱动的威胁建模框架 Future-Back Threat Modeling: A Foresight-Driven Security Framework

精读摘要

传统威胁建模是反应式的——盯着已知 TTP 和历史事件数据，而威胁预测框架又常与实际系统架构脱节。这造成一个根本弱点：最严重的网络威胁往往来自「被假定、被忽视或尚未构想」之处，比如 AI、信息战与供应链攻击，对手在持续进化。研究提出「从未来倒推」的威胁建模框架，以前瞻思维驱动安全设计，弥补反应式建模的盲区。 Traditional threat modeling is reactive, focused on known TTPs and past incidents, while forecasting frameworks are disconnected from operational artifacts. The most serious threats often arise from what is assumed, overlooked, or not yet conceived, such as AI, information warfare, and supply chain attacks. The work proposes future-back threat modeling, a foresight-driven framework that designs security from anticipated futures.